Naresh joins Jason Hartman on this episode to talk about labor content fallacy and the zero-sum game. Jason explains what a zero-sum game is and shares his thoughts on how it will affect the economy in the long run. Then they talk about innovation, specifically self-driving cars, and how autonomous driving services may affect the auto industry. They also warn the real estate investors to watch closely as the upcoming game-changers come to fruition, affecting the unemployment rates and the housing market.
Announcer 0:00
This show is produced by the Hartman media company. For more information and links to all our great podcasts, visit Hartman media.com.
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Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in 1000s of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day, you really can do it. And now here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 1:04
Welcome to the creating wealth show. This is your host Jason Hartman episode number 568 568. We’ve got a bunch of things to talk to you about today. I’ve gotten Naresh here with me. And one of the things you may not have heard of, it’s the labor content fallacy, the labor content fallacy, so we’re going to talk about that. We’re going to talk about the future. And as Yogi Berra said, the future ain’t what it used to be. And I think that quote was very prescient, based on what’s going on nowadays. So a lot of good stuff. Let’s dive in. how are you, Naresh?
Naresh 1:37
I’m doing great, Jason. Just doing my thing in Florida. How’s San Diego treating you?
Jason Hartman 1:42
Good, good. Life is good. Life is good. I gotta tell you, though, like I said before, the weather here is not as good as Phoenix. I know, many people think I’m crazy. But whatever. We, we did all the small talk on that before. So let’s not do it again. This time, let’s dive in and talk. We got a lot of stuff on the agenda today. And, you know, we talk a lot about economics, inflation, employment, unemployment, what it means to real estate investors, and how we can design our investment portfolio for these big changes, how we can design our investment portfolio for the misleading statistics that we get from the government, how we can design our portfolio for, you know, the absolute stupidity that goes on in government, and what goes on in Washington, DC, we know that wall street basically owns Congress, their lobbyists are there every day of the year, or every day, they’re in session, at least. And they’re constantly influencing them to make laws in their favor. And so, you know, we got to take matters into our own hands as investors we’ve got to do, what makes sense for us, and what will protect us from all of these various forces that are so out of control. So opposite our interest. And you know, some of the forces are good overall, like technology. And we’re going to talk about that today, when we dive into the labor content fallacy. They have significant impact to us as real estate investors, some of which may be deflationary, some of which may really cause us to abandon, or really, really rethink in very significant ways. The three cardinal rules of real estate, and I’ve talked about this before, what are the three cardinal rules? Come on, folks, we all know them, location, location, and location. But technology could really change that pretty significantly. I think. So that’s probably a good opportunity for our style of investing. I think it I think it is. So we’ll dive into that today. What should we cover? First?
Naresh 3:50
How about we talk a little bit about the labor content fallcy?
Jason Hartman 3:54
Okay, so this is a big one. So first of all, what the heck is the labor content fallacy? You know, it reminds me of the concept of the the zero sum game. We’ve heard that before. This is what I think is one of the the huge fallacies of the left wing political ideology. And so when it comes to the zero sum game, which is somewhat similar to the labor content fallacy, not exactly in kind of the Malthusian idea, these things all relate to each other, I think, and here’s why. You know, the zero sum game says that if, if the government needs more money, it should just simply raise taxes. But that doesn’t work. Because when you raise taxes, you change the incentive structure of people and the way they organize their lives and the way they spend and invest. And ultimately what you do when you raise taxes, I say is that you in the in the medium to long run, maybe not the immediate short run, but the medium run, which means a couple years. And the long run, of course, they you know that the next decade, you reduce tax revenue. And Reagan proved this and Arthur Laffer proved this Now many people have maligned those guys. Okay. Arthur Laffer, by the way, was the guy who created what’s called the Laffer curve. And they believe that they really proved the validity of supply side economics, of trickle down economics. And largely, I think this holds water. I think it’s true today. And, you know, we’ve, we’ve seen that we even saw that with Bill Clinton with his administration, in so many ways. And so if you increase taxes, people reduce investment, because they’re not rewarded to invest. And then when you reduce investment, you decrease overall economic activity. And when you decrease overall economic activity, you ultimately decrease tax revenue. And that’s bad for everybody. So the labor content fallacy is kind of similar to that, isn’t it? Because when we talk about technology, and the disruption of technology, and the fear of people losing their jobs, and high unemployment, and we talked about robotics, and the self driving cars, and 3d printing, and nanotechnology, and biotechnology and energy technology, and all of this stuff, where we appear to be at the point in history, where this is like an, like a hockey stick on a graph, and that hockey stick represents exponential growth. Maybe we’re there. Maybe it’s just another advancement, like it always has been, you know, like, when they invented when when Edison will really maybe it was Tesla who did it. But who knows who should get the credit, invented the electric light bulb, okay. And, you know, when the steam engine was invented, when the wheel was invented, when fire was discovered, that’s not an invention. That’s a discovery. But, you know, maybe that’s what everybody thought throughout history. What are your thoughts?
Naresh 7:19
So first off, this is all very, in my opinion, it’s good stuff. This is good for innovation. It’s good for technology. And as you just discuss, it’s good for the economy. Because what this is doing this labor content fallacy, it essentially means that people are no longer required to produce products and to run the products, we can now automate. And to give you some examples,
Jason Hartman 7:52
Run the manufacturing, you mean to say,
Naresh 7:54
Yeah, right, right, run the manufacturing just many different facets of the the product cycle. And to give you an example, let’s take the driverless cars. Do you want to take the driverless cars? Are we
Jason Hartman 8:07
Yeah, yeah. So So I think the self driving car, the autonomous car, really is going to hurt all of these people who bought high end real estate with expensive land. Now, that goes back to the Hartman risk evaluator right where I see I say, buy, buy properties with cheaper free land. So you’re essentially a commodities investor. Because the high land value markets are the cyclical markets, the ones with the big shifts, where the prices are high and low, and they are the rollercoaster ride, they always have been. I don’t like that as a conservative, prudent investor. I like reliable cash flow, mailbox money. That’s my view of it. So Naresh, I want to play a little audio clip for our listeners. And I’m sure you’re going to have some comments about it. Because I’m not the only one who sees the effects of the autonomous vehicle on real estate. Listen to this
‘Audio Clip’ 9:07
autonomous cars will be commonplace by 2025 and have a near monopoly by 2030. And the sweeping change they bring will eclipse every other innovation, our society’s experience. That’s prediction of a blog posted in the tech and science section on CBS sf.com. It’s called how Uber’s autonomous cars will destroy 10 million jobs and reshape the economy by 2025. For more, we’re joined on the kcbs ringcentral.
Jason Hartman 9:30
And that’s the other big concern we’re going to talk about today when you mentioned the labor content fallacy, and you know, 10 million jobs. I mean, can you imagine 10 million jobs evaporating? How terrible that sounds, but maybe it’s not so bad. So hang on a second, and we’ll talk about that
‘Audio Clip’ 9:50
will Newsline by its authors that Cantor, a founder of several startups in the automated automotive space. Good morning. Thanks for joining us. Hi, good morning. Morning, Holly. The title of the post is ominous, we have to say the least. How exactly is this going to work?
‘Audio Clip’ 10:06
Well, I think you know what a lot of people think about the future, I think it’s easy to imagine a lot of the major things have already happened, or that they’re gonna occur in the distant future. But I think these things are gonna happen in the next few years. And, you know, when you look at the major automakers and startup automakers like Tesla, they’re gonna have cars, autonomous cars, fully autonomous cars on the road, by 2020. So that’s not really a prediction, or a pie in the sky sci fi type of thinking, that’s what’s already gonna happen. And I think it’s gonna happen much the adoption is gonna happen very quickly. And by 2025, we’re gonna see, you know, predominantly autonomous fleet.
Jason Hartman 10:40
So keep in mind that automotive industry experts have said, basically, with normal cars, that it takes about eight years to mostly replace the auto fleet. Okay, that’s the typical cycle, you know, you don’t see many cars on the road that are older than eight years. All right, that’s, that’s what they, the experts will tell you. But with the autonomous vehicle, it will probably happen a lot faster. Because this isn’t just an upgrade. This is a game changer in so many ways.
‘Audio Clip’ 11:15
On the road, one of your central arguments is that when this happens, when we don’t need to be tied to the car, as the driver and owner of it will have a lot fewer cars on the road. The argument is, it’s so much of the life of a car is spent sitting doing nothing.
‘Audio Clip’ 11:30
Yeah, I mean, the statistics are pretty staggering. You look at you know, the average car is used about 4% of the time the rest of the time.
Jason Hartman 11:38
So just understand that the average car is used 4% of the time, 96% of the time, the car is not being used, yet, the owner has to pay for it. And this is the one of the huge benefits of the sharing economy. Because when you look at Lyft, Uber, sidecar, Airbnb, all of these sharing economy type of businesses, what they’ve basically done is they’ve taken all these unused assets in the world and put them to work. And similarly, there are companies where you can rent your car out, not drive it around and not, you know, do become a driver for Lyft or Uber, but you can rent your own car. So it’s not, it’s not just costing you money that other maybe 96% of the time. So interesting point there, too. But it gets even more interesting.
‘Audio Clip’ 12:32
What it’s like Uber are gonna be, you know, gaining a lot of popularity and running the autonomous fleets. I think in the in the future people like you, and I probably won’t purchase or buy cars, we’re just going to use cars on demand.
Jason Hartman 12:43
So that’s another big question. What does that mean for the auto industry and all the jobs tied to the auto industry? I mean, if do them Naresh, can you imagine the math on this? If If a car isn’t used 96% of the time on average, and mine is used even less, maybe 98% of the time, mine’s not being used, because I hardly ever drive. That’s basically like a 20 to one ratio. Okay. So that means that you could have one 20th the number of cars on the road, and not just that, with the autonomous component of it, once they all get to be autonomous, like the way they’re predicting by 2025, which Ain’t that far away. Okay, they could increase the packing capacity of highways by about six fold. So, you know, cars can drive bumper to bumper, at 100 miles an hour, safely, and there would be a lot fewer cars. So I mean, the ripple effects in the economy are huge, you know, what does this mean that, you know, Detroit? What does it mean to Japan? I mean, what does it mean to Germany, where so many cars are, you know, manufactured, if this happens Now, the other thing is that, you know, just because cars are autonomous, doesn’t mean people won’t have their own car the way most people do nowadays. But it’s an interesting question. You know, I was reading this techno futurist article A while back, that talked about how self driving cars could actually be unknown. In other words, they could own themselves. I mean, amazing, but it’s amazing what it means to people who own properties in a high land value areas. This is a game changer for real estate. Keep listening. He addresses that.
‘Audio Clip’ 14:40
Should I be excited because it’s gonna be cheaper for me or should I worry because there may be fewer jobs.
‘Audio Clip’ 14:48
Well, I think they should be excited on both fronts. I think that there’s going to be fewer jobs in the existing industries. But I think that it’s going to create a huge amount of new jobs in the future. I mean, we’re talking a trillion dollars is spent on Purchasing and maintaining cars every year and so the, you know, the huge amount of disposable income that’s gonna be freed up, I think it’s gonna spur a lot of innovation.
Jason Hartman 15:09
So an extra trillion dollars to spend on real estate, maybe maybe people could afford nicer places to live. Maybe they could upgrade their housing because they’re spending less money on transportation. Maybe they could upgrade, you know, take more vacations, eat better food, have more entertainment. I mean, there’s a lot of implications to that right, Naresh?
Naresh 15:33
Oh, yeah, absolutely. This is, in my opinion, this is a good thing. I’m just a little skeptical about the dates that they mentioned in the in the clip that you played. 2025 is nine years or 10 years, almost nine years away? And do you really think people are going to adopt this that quickly?
Jason Hartman 15:52
Oh, yeah, I think this is a giant revolution. I think between this, and literally 3d printing, we are going to see massive changes in the world and the economy. And we’ve got to think about this in terms of the way we invest. I mean, when you look at the other, I mean, the self driving car is arguably a robot. Okay, it is a robot. And the other types of robotics are just astounding, what’s coming up, some of them very scary. These sort of military and police type robots remember the movie Robocop? There’s a lot of potential bad uses for this stuff. But overall, it’s pretty good. Okay, so let’s keep listening in because he touches on the real estate topic.
‘Audio Clip’ 16:36
But it’s also gonna be faster and cheaper. They did a study and they said that if New York City’s taxi fleet was autonomous, you’d see pickup times in the neighborhood of 30 seconds, and a trip would cost 50 cents a mile. So
Jason Hartman 16:48
We’ll see if the taxi union thug cartel allows that to happen.
‘Audio Clip’ 16:53
That’s pretty attractive proposition.
‘Audio Clip’ 16:56
When we look at the way we live, it’s not just the fact our houses often have garages tacked onto them, or our streets have extra lanes for parking. But literally, the way we live is based on using a car the way we use it. Now, how would that change in the vision you have.
‘Audio Clip’ 17:10
I mean, I think that there’s, there’s big impacts in terms of planning, I mean, you’re you’re not going to have to worry about parking. Traffic is going to be a thing of the past. Probably the biggest thing that I look at in terms of the way the world is gonna change is that a lot of times now, people have to live very close to a city because commuting reasons but when you have autonomous cars that can go at 120 miles without traffic, also living within, you know,
Jason Hartman 17:39
And he meant 120 miles an hour without traffic. Okay, not 120 miles and range. But pretty interesting there, isn’t that? I mean, that is a game changer. I mean, all of the garages that could be converted to an extra room. If people didn’t own their car. What was that statistic, I shared it on a recent show, and I can’t remember that the typical city or town is I think 40% parking or something like that. And it you know, I kind of doubted that statistic at first, but then I just walked down the street and I thought, look at all these parking spaces parking, lots parking on the street, parking and driveways, parking and garages, whether they be you know, your own garage in your house, or a commercial garage and a parking structure. I mean, what what a giant change, huh?
Naresh 18:28
Oh, yeah, this is this is just an apt to hear this interview. Sounds amazing. Without a doubt, but again, in nine years, so what what our world is going to be? Well, the United States, maybe not the entire world, but this is what it’s going to be like, if it picks up that quickly. Man, we’re gonna be living in a very, very different world.
Jason Hartman 18:49
Yeah, definitely. And I think a better one in a lot of ways here we go to
‘Audio Clip’ 18:53
the city is pretty reasonable. So I think you’re gonna see the urban sprawl sort of translate to suburban sprawl and, and we’re gonna see a much more spread out environment overall.
Jason Hartman 19:03
So there’s always been this move towards cities, right? And now what what he’s saying and I agree with it. That you know, people can really live in suburbia with out much consequence. First of all, the question is, do they even need to get in a car and go to work? Because, you know, obviously, technology has changed that game completely. It certainly changed it for my business. But then, if they do need to get in a car and show up someplace in person, that becomes so much easier, so much less expensive, so much simpler. So a lot of real estate implications,
‘Audio Clip’ 19:43
Good thing or bad thing from where you sit.
‘Audio Clip’ 19:46
I think it’s a great thing. I think innovation is always good. I think that you know, when people are performing the same tasks over and over and over again, like driving, it’s, it’s wasted effort, and I think that we’re gonna free up a lot of Human Capital. A lot of smart people to work on work on other things, instead of wasting not something like 30 or 40 hours they’re spending every year in, in traffic.
‘Audio Clip’ 20:11
Before we let you go, address the one concern people always have about this. And that’s the notion of the loss of freedom. They like people who even will tell you I don’t mind sitting in traffic lights my car, I like my car, and I can control when I sit in traffic.
‘Audio Clip’ 20:25
I mean, I think it’s gonna be less freedom for some people and, and more freedom for others. I mean, I think when you look at someone who’s trying to get away from a bank robbery, probably considerably less freedom, but someone who has no mobility and maybe can’t drive themselves, or someone who, who wants to be working while they’re driving. I think those types of people are gonna have a lot more freedom.
‘Audio Clip’ 20:46
Appreciate your time this morning, Zach Cantor, a futurist whose piece about the autonomous car is worth a read. It’s online at CBS sf.com. In the tech and science section, we’ll also post a link from the KCBS Radio Facebook page.
Jason Hartman 20:58
Just wanted to make sure I got all the right attributions in there. But fascinating stuff, folks, think about it, if you’re a soccer mom, or a soccer dad that’s listening, can you imagine how, you know, the the the burden on parents would be dramatically reduced, because you wouldn’t necessarily have to chauffeur your kids around, maybe that will just be in an automated fashion. I don’t know, of course, you know, there’s issues with the kids safety and so forth. But a lot of that is becoming automated to a lot of that is becoming taken care of, you know, this one hugely popular app right now, I think it’s called walk me home or something like that. It’s like a safety app, there are safety apps for smartphones, with, you know, little panic buttons on them, and, you know, things where you can alert, you know, a certain trusted circle of friends, that you’re walking from here to here, and they can just track your movements, if you’re walking down, you know, through a city at night in a sketchy area. So that could be true for kids too. for elderly people. There, there are just so many implications, but everybody has bemoaned the concept of urban sprawl, and suburban sprawl. And first, in the 50s, when all that kind of began and the automobile became so romanticized and so popular, you know, it was great, the suburbs, that that’s when they they really began. And now, you know, I think there could be a trend back toward the suburbs. So again, when you’re thinking of a real estate investment, think about this. There’s a lot of implications to it, and and mostly good, but the fear we have is high unemployment. You know, what, what will be the unemployment problem. And that brings us back Naresh, to the labor content fallacy, which basically says that people have unlimited desires, and will just dream up something else they want. And other entrepreneurs and humans will dream up how to fulfill it, right?
Naresh 23:06
Yeah, well, initially, there’s going to be some, it’s gonna have to take some time for it for this to figure itself out. So yes, unemployment will be a problem kind of early on in this process. But I think in the end, as you know, technology is usually great, almost always great for the economy. it automates things, it improves the quality of lives, that we’re able to live. And the the unemployment is going to shift. I think people will find a way to innovate and to find more work to kind of blend in to this to this advancement. So
Jason Hartman 23:42
You are so right, just remember, though, the thing that really gets people, I mean, in the last economic downturn, what really got people is the lag time when the change is occurring? Okay, that’s what gets you is the changeover period. And so you know, when those workers need to be retrained, when all of this stuff needs to happen, right, that’s the hard part.
Naresh 24:08
Right? And it’ll be interesting to see how these car companies you brought this up earlier? How are they going to innovate? They’re going to be forced to innovate, what are they going to do? How are they going to pivot? Again, I don’t think they’re going to go completely out of business still find a way a lot of these companies have been around for for a long, long time. And they’ve had to face some, some trying times, they’ve had to face all sorts of technological advancements. But like you said, there’s going to be a lag, there is going to be a lag.
Jason Hartman 24:37
There will definitely be a lag. But if first it’s going to be a booming like, you know, for the next maybe 10 years of the automotive industry, for the companies that are innovative that are really on the frontlines of the autonomous vehicle revolution. Business is going to be great for them. Because think of, think of the 10s of millions of cars out there. And the concept of replacing the entire fleet. And especially if that pace of replacement, hastens, if it moves faster. They’re going to have booming business at first, it’s going to be phenomenal for them. But then ultimately, yes, they have to change. And hopefully they’ll get into self driving airplanes. And some other cool stuff. But you know, I think Naresh it’s worth mentioning when we talk about this labor content fallacy is this article by Gerald Huff. Okay, and this is in website medium.com. And he makes some interesting observations. And he talks about it. He says, it’s the phenomenon is most obvious with digital goods. Okay. And he talks about my girlfriend, Taylor Swift. Yeah. So. So he says this, he says that the phenomenon is most obvious with digital goods, which exhibit essentially zero marginal cost of production. Imagine 100 million consumers who save money due to automation in some industry. And then they use that money to go buy 100 million downloads of Taylor Swift’s latest hit, how many new jobs are created by that 100 million in spending? You know, and of course, he’s making the assumption that it’s like $1 per song, right? It’s sort of the iTunes model. And that it’s really going to be $1 29, I’m sure. But he says basically, zero, basically, zero new jobs were created by that spending. And then he says, What if 100 million people paid $1 per year for the WhatsApp mission? messaging service? Right, Whatsapp is free. Of course, Facebook bought it for $19. billion couple years ago. Okay, but what if they paid $1 a year? How many new employees would WhatsApp need to hire, since they handle 450 million customers, with a staff of less than 50 people? And he says the answer is not many. Of course, he doesn’t talk about their supply chain. So, you know, someone needs to make more servers, because there’ll be more load on the servers and the computer infrastructure, Cisco is going to sell some more routers, okay, so there is that, but that stuff’s pretty durable. You know, it doesn’t, you know, of course, there’s Moore’s law and, you know, the 18 months, that it’s gonna be really, you know, doubled and power and so forth. But, you know, mostly that stuff’s kind of durable. And a lot of it is manufactured through robotics. So where does this go? You know, where does it go? It’s going to be an interesting time. It really is, it really is.
Naresh 27:41
I’m excited about it, the listening to these futurists listening to you, we’re not too far away. And it’s going to be a very, very interesting time to see how the United States is going to improve technologically by leaps and bounds and how this is gonna affect in turn the economy and real estate.
Jason Hartman 28:04
Yeah, it’s really like I always say, it’s an amazing time to be alive. And we just like to occasionally talk about some of this broader, more macro stuff, if you will, on the show. Because most real estate investors are just not thinking about this stuff. You know, they’re, they’re thinking, Well, I’m a buy and hold investor. And that’s a good, good strategy. And I’m gonna buy this property, and I’m gonna keep it for 27.5 years. But if you’re paying extra, if you’re if you’re paying a premium to buy, what’s now considered to be well located properties, properties with prime locations, you might be very disappointed with your investment, as the autonomous car gains traction. And as the sharing economy gains traction, because that may just not be that big a deal. And we’re not even to the point of beam me up, Scotty. I mean, this isn’t the transporter room, which we might eventually have that too. So it’s an amazing time to be alive, right?
Naresh 29:12
Oh, yeah. This is this is very exciting stuff.
Jason Hartman 29:16
All right. Well, folks, go to Jason hartman.com. And lots more information. Lots more great podcasts there. I want to mention also Naresh, I wish you were joining us for this year in East Coast guy, but you’re not going to be coming to this one. But it’s our Newport Rhode Island adventure with a venture Alliance. That’s my private mastermind group. Of course, some of our clients have chosen to take the leap and come into the venture Alliance early so we appreciate them joining, but go to Jason hartman.com. Click on events. And that’s going to be fantastic Providence and Newport, Rhode Island. For the venture Alliance mastermind five star dining, intimate mastermind sessions with real estate entrepreneurs from across the country. Maybe around the world, who knows, who might come from around the world and join us to maybe some of our European listeners, that’s going to be a great event, we’re doing a side trip the day before to Martha’s Vineyard as well. So you’re welcome to join us for that. If you really want to get some really cool friend and hang out time with us, it would be great to have you again, small intimate setting, and go to Jason hartman.com. Click on events for that. And by the time you hear this, we should have a new site up. And I’m just going to give the domain name again, it’s venturealliancemastermind.com. So by the time you hear this, that should definitely be up. We got a great new website up for that with video and, and some good content there. VentureAlliancemastermind.com venture Alliance mastermind.com. So join us for that and hey Naresh, I know you let me do most of the talking today, as usual. But thanks for being on and helping me out.
Naresh 30:54
No, thank you, Jason. It was good.
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