Jason Hartman starts the show by talking about the current real estate market statistics. In addition, he shares a story about when he was just starting out as a real estate agent. He reminisces about the days when first-time buyers were staying in the rental market. He also shared his best and worst deals.
Announcer 0:00
This show is produced by the Hartman media company. For more information and links to all our great podcasts, visit Hartman media.com.
Announcer 0:13
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it on now. here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the company leet solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 1:04
So you’ve heard my rants about how our financial system is rigged, and I’ve interviewed hundreds of experts to back up those claims and help you align your investments with the most powerful forces in the world, governments and central banks. I’m also using a perpetual wealth strategy with my income property investments that you should check out. It has enhanced the security of my liquid assets, boosted overall ROI and shifted money away from the banksters my friend Pat Donahoe, who’s one of our venture Alliance members, runs paradigm life and he has a free report that you can download at be your bank.com that’s B your bank comm check it out today. Welcome to the creating wealth show, episode number 863. This is your host, Jason Hartman. Thank you so much for joining Today, and greetings from Warsaw, Poland. Yes, I am back here again. I was just here about a month and a half ago. And it’s great to be back. As you may know, from the prior episodes, I’ve been traveling around Europe for the past. I don’t know week and a half, I guess. And you know, what I thought I would do is all of you go on trips, right? All of you travel, all of my listeners are traveling. And certainly you venture Alliance members travel because I know you’ve been on some awesome trips with me. And that’s been a lot of fun. And I consider myself to be after visiting 81 countries now and traveling all the time to various conferences and conventions and seminars and meetings and local markets and doing property tours. Not just 81 countries but some of those countries many times. I have not increased my country counted all on this latest Europe trip. I have back to France. I’ve been back to Luxembourg. I’ve been back to Poland. And I’ve been back to the Czech Republic. That’s the one I forgot there. Prague. I was in just the other day and country count is sitting at 81 it has not increased at all. But I will tell you, I consider myself to be not only a real estate expert, and an investing expert, and a hack economist and economic expert. Yes. Yours truly humble as I am. I am also an expert in one other thing, maybe a few other things, but one other definitely. And that is, how to pack for a trip and how to travel. I’ve done it so much. I’ve made so many mistakes, just like investing. I’ve done it so much and I’ve made so many mistakes. And I thought I would share some travel tips with you and some packing trips. You know, this is relatively easy for me. It’s funny, my friend Christina was saying, you know, she said this to me many times I’ve been planning trips and going on trips, and it’ll be maybe Monday and I’ll talk to Christina. And I’m leaving on Thursday. And she says, Well, have you started the pack yet? Like, what? That’s the funniest question I’ve ever heard. I packed like a half hour before the trip, and most of the time, so I do consider myself to be a bit of an expert at this. So maybe time permitting, I will share a few travel tips with you. But first, I want to share a little CNBC video clip on existing home sales. They’re down ever so slightly, it’s only a minor minor, slight decline. But why is that? Well, it is because the prices are much higher and of course the interest rates went up a bit. And let me say something to you. And preface it by saying this. I hope I don’t regret saying this. But here it is. I hope I don’t regret saying this. Here’s what I’m gonna say you’re ready for this. I really wish the market the real estate market would slow down a little bit. You know, you may love it this way. I don’t know, maybe you do, maybe you don’t. But we as the middlemen in the middle of the transaction here, the referral network that we run as a broker of sorts, not your typical real estate broker relationship, real estate agent relationship, but a broker of sorts because we’re brokering a deal. We’re, you know, introducing you to properties and people that provide those properties and they broker the transaction for our clients. But you know, it is hard to operate in a market like this. I’ve got to tell you. And I have noticed that over my many, many years of being in the real estate business, both the traditional side of the business up until 2005. And then the investment only side of the business starting in 2004. Yes, there was a little overlap in those two, as I was selling my traditional real estate company back in Orange County, California to Coldwell Banker. And yeah, it’s hard to operate in a market like this. So if you asked me, I wouldn’t mind seeing the market slowed down a little. Okay. Not a lot, but a little, you could hack 10 to 20% of the activity off of the top and, and to have that much less craziness. And I think I speak for my whole team. We would be happy as a clam. clams are happy. Have you noticed those clams they are always smiling right? They’ve got a natural smile clams do. Okay enough of my silliness in Warsaw, Poland here at the Intercontinental Hotel Tonight it is 10:27pm. So I might be a little punchy. But let me play this little video clip for you. And then I will share a few hopefully insightful comments on it. And then we’ll get to a few questions and a few other things I want to cover.
‘Video clip excerpt’ 7:31
So down 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual loss rate of 5.52 million units that’s slightly lower than the street expected. We’re only up 0.7% year over year compared to June of 2016. Sales down across the country except in the Midwest slight increase up 3% month to month, the new median existing home price in June $263,800. That’s a new record up six and a half percent year over year. Two things about this price. Though if you adjust it for inflation, it’s still 9% below the last peak in 2006. Also,
Jason Hartman 8:07
let me stop you there. One moment. Okay, so let me say something about this. So you notice the median price very high, but adjusted for inflation still 9% below the peak back before the Great Recession. So, the indicator there is we have a little ways to go before we are into bubble territory. But of course, as she’s going to say in just a moment here, she’s going to talk about what’s pulling that median up is that you’re seeing more of an expensive home market. And remember, we always have to segment by the three major types of market and then we have to segment zillion other ways as we peel back the layers of the onion on all these statistics, right statistics are broad, sweeping generalizations. So We have to pull back the curtain on all of these things, right? But what you notice here that the broad generalization is, as we see prices go up, and affordability go down for stability being a symptom of price and higher interest rates because interest rates did bump up a little. We see sales declining and keeping more people in the renter pool. Now when you start hearing the population is having big declines, then we are in trouble. Okay, as I’ve said many times before, every theory I talk about every observation I have on what you should do, to be a good investor is predicated on population stability or growth is population declines. Everything changes okay. Now, we have not seen that yet. But if somewhat day we do, then we will talk about it. And then we will talk about it long before it hits. The nice thing about population, by the way, this is really, really wonderful is that you can tell what’s going to happen. A good 18 to 25 years in advance. Isn’t that cool? It’s very cool. Okay. So if the population the birth rate declines today, then we know there will be less housing demand in about, Well, not really 18 years because, well, you know, some people move out at 18 and move into student housing and stuff like that, but, but really, it hits in about 2425 years, right? That’s when you can really tell so you get a big warning. Okay, you get a big warning on that one. So we don’t need to worry about it. Thankfully. You see the three dimensions of real estate concept playing out Hear You can hear it in it prices are up, interest rates went up a little bit, and then demand curtailed. It’s very slight, this is a very slight change, obviously, but it is just worth mentioning. Okay, not that this is any big trend. But if it were, then you would notice that three dimensions of real estate concept that I teach playing out more and more. And if you want to know more about that, by the way, we have entire episodes dedicated to just that topic. Go to Jason hartman.com. Type in three dimensions of real estate and you’ll find more about that. Okay, let me continue the video.
‘Video clip excerpt’ 11:37
This is a median price. So there’s a mixed shift going on here. A lot more higher end homes are selling than on the low end that’s pushing that median price higher. Why is it going higher inventory 1.96 million units for sale that’s down. 7.1%
Jason Hartman 11:53
inventory is down. 7.1% inventory down 7.1% as I’ve mentioned to you before, and, you know, it’s an anecdotal observation, okay? But with all my years in the real estate business, I hate to admit, but decades now not years, we’re counting in decades. This is the tightest I have ever seen inventory. Now, that may not be an empirical thing. I’m just saying that from my perspective, but inventory is obviously very, very tight. You all know that we’ve talked about it a lot on prior episodes. won’t belabor the point. But here she is citing inventory down just over 7%
‘Video clip excerpt’ 12:40
year over year. It’s the 25th consecutive annual drop in inventory. We’re at a 4.3 months supply. That’s why homes are moving fast days on market 28 down from 34 a year ago, cash sales still 18% and the first time homebuyer so desperately needed in this market dropped down a little bit just 32% The sales engine should be closer to 40%. So slight Miss down 1.8% month to month for June home sales back to you guys.
Jason Hartman 13:07
Okay, now that was fascinating. Did you catch the last statement as she talked about the first time homebuyer so desperately needed in this market? Only? What did she say? 32%. It should be about 40%. That is hugely significant to you as an investor. Why is that? Well, let me take you back to my many years ago, when I was selling real estate as a traditional real estate agent for REMAX in Irvine, California. I was a very successful agent. I started out working with buyers. I sold them HUD and VA foreclosures. I had a lot of investor buyers and a lot of first time buyers. And so I learned a lot from those people. But when I moved from century 21 in Anaheim, California, to REMAX in Irvine, California. I started noticing something as I transitioned my career from a buyer’s agent to a listing agent, where I would farm a neighborhood and my first farm area was called wynwood townhomes and wynwood Garden homes. My first sale in there actually was the property. I remember it well at 305 Deerfield in Irvine, California. And Barry and Andrea were my clients. They hired me to list their home. They must have thought I was a teenager. Well, I almost was a teenager actually. I came over and talk them into listing with me. And I sold their home very quickly to a guy named our asik in our medium client. I later got the whole family, the Armenian big family. They were all clients of mine and they were grateful For many, many years, his dad over gene and his brother Mike, that wasn’t his real name, but you know, that was his Americanized name. They purchase several homes for me, and I sold a few of them for them to over the years. Anyway. What was I going to tell you about this? Oh, yeah, here was my point. Don’t get on this tangent. Jason, be careful. You’re, you’re on tangent territory. My point was that as I was farming, and I farmed, as a realtor to get listings in this first time buyer area, where it was entry level homes, that that condo at 305 Deerfield or townhome I should say the B plan and Winwood townhomes sold for I believe $125,000 it’s a lot more than that today. Okay. But that’s a cyclical market. It’s been up and down over the years and I I go back and I check these old sales on Zillow. You know that I’ve sold few times over the years actually, I think I sold that property twice in there as well. But here’s what I always noticed that people would sell their first home, their entry level home. And so a group of buyers, those first time buyers that she just mentioned, had to come in and buy those homes. And there would start the domino effect, right? Those people would move up, and they’d move from it the time that hundred and $25,000 townhome and they’d move into a $215,000 single family home, maybe right. And then it would trickle up in the dominoes, the dominoes, the dominoes, but this time, it’s different. Famous Last Words of any investor right? They probably said that during the tulip craze in Holland many many years ago, right? This time, it’s different. Well back then. They probably didn’t have much to go on for this time. It’s different statement. But it actually is different this time in this respect. I’m not saying it’s different in every way. But it is different in the respect that there aren’t as many first time buyers driving the market. Okay.
Jason Hartman 17:16
Why is that significant? Because a lot of those would be first time buyers are staying in the rental market. And this is only an anecdotal impression, okay, that I’m about to share with you. This is not like hard data, but a lot of a lot of life comes down to the soft impressions, right? It really does. Now, she just gave you hard data. She said the first time buyer pool is small, right? anecdotally, I would say that what is happening here is people are either forced to or they are choosing to stay as renters. Rather than buying their first home. Now are they Gen Y people with massive amounts of student loan debt? Or they they have a mortgage, but a house was never included with a mortgage? Yes, that’s certainly part of the equation. Are they people? Who are those would be first time buyers who are Generation Y millennials that saw their parents get burned in the housing market during the Great Recession 10 years ago. Yes. And they’re thinking, Well, why do I want to buy a house? Are they those same young people that are thinking I want to be mobile, and I want to have choices and heck, I got free rent living with mom and dad, but they actually represent the shadow inventory of the rental and the home buying market in the future. All of the above are true, right. And there are many other issues. So the demographics, coming at rental housing, really already at rental housing are phenomenal, right? But for the next decade or so. We’ve got phenomenal demographics coming at the housing market from actually both perspectives from the rental perspective and the buying perspective. Because if they move out of mom and dad’s home, and they get married, and they decide, you know, we’re going to buy a house. Okay, great. So that increases demand on the buyer side. And that pushes the value of the properties you own up, because there’s more demand, right? If they become renters, and they move out of mom and dad’s house, or if they are already renting, and they stay in the rental market, just increased demand for rental properties. So it’s all good. It’s all good in that respect, right. So that’s just an interesting thing. And I just wanted to share that video with you. There’s certainly more we could talk about on it. I’m certain that you could have a bunch more questions on that stuff, right. But our air pods contest and I was Hoping to announce the winner today, I’m going to have to wait to announce the winner because I don’t have all of the entries tabulated yet. And then I go to the website, the random.com or random.org, or whatever website and I put in a number and then I’ll pick the winner, just have the computer do the random number generator. And we’ll do that. But we have got a ton of questions here. And we’ve got another contest. This one worked out so well. And I loved your questions and comments so much. I’ve got so many more to get to you listeners keep telling me you’re liking hearing these questions on the air and the answers to them the QA, so I’m gonna get through what I can today on that. But let me tell you about the new contest. It is for an Amazon Echo. It’s the black amazon echo the full size one not the echo.my mom bought me one of these for my birthday last year. And I kind of resisted it for a while because I thought well, you know, I don’t really like the idea of it. Besides having a hot mic in my home, but they’ve already got it on your iPhone, Edward Snowden, prove that to us that the microphones and our computers and our smartphones can be hot miked anytime the NSA wants to turn them on and big brother wants to listen in. So it’s an amazing time to be alive, but also a scary time to be alive at the same at the same time. You know, every, everything bites back, right? Everything has its good and it’s bad sides to it. But anyway, we are giving away an Amazon Echo. And there is a new website for it. Okay. It is Hartman, education, calm. Hartman, education calm, and it’s slash contest. So Hartman education comm slash contest, not where we did the last one, which was Jason hartman.com slash contest. That contest is now closed. We will get the winner now. Hear, but if you want to win an echo, then go to the full size Echo, go to Hartman education comm slash contest, and just takes a few seconds to enter your name there. And you know, these contests are pretty small, okay? It’s not like we have 2000 people enter. So I’m just going to tell you, your odds of winning are pretty darn good. I know, this is not like you’re winning a free property or anything like that. But you know, it’s cool. And your odds are pretty good. You know, we only have like six listeners, right? You know, between the six listeners that we have, if five of the mentor Well, you got a 20% chance of winning. I’m just kidding. We have way more than six listeners but you know, being a little self effacing there. Okay, so the travel tips. I will get to those on a future show. Let me get to some of the questions here now, Mike, Mike, you’re killing me. This is a giant question. Mike wrote like it Sa he’s got an eight part really he’s got a nine part question here. So I am just not going to be able to get to this all but I’m gonna I’m gonna get to part of your question. Okay. And, and maybe we’ll get to the rest of it on a future episode. I mean, Mike, you really I got a compliment you this these are well, well thought out questions and they are very in depth but Gosh, I just it take me two hours to really answer these in depth so I’m kind of going to do them a little bit rapid fire. Okay. Your first question was, what’s your single greatest real estate transaction? Explain please. And what is your single biggest real estate failure? All right. Well, like any good politician, like, I am going to not answer your question. I am going to answer my own question. Yes, I’m gonna do that to you. Because as I looked at that, and I started thinking back at all the deals I’ve done and there are many, many deals I’ve done certainly. I don’t know that I could say single biggest, greatest or single worst and, you know, biggest failure, right? But I’m gonna just share with you a good deal and a bad deal. Okay? I’m not saying these are this is the best or the worst. Okay, I’m just going to share with you what I liked and didn’t like. So my single went nuts not single greatest. Okay, I already said that. It’s just going to be a deal I liked okay. And maybe this was what really got me on track. As I’ve talked to you about before. The first property I ever bought from a client at age 20 on Coventry lane in Huntington Beach. I really wish I knew the exact address of that property that little one bedroom, crappy condo that is still there. By the way. I don’t know the exact address so I can look it up and, you know, find out what it’s worth today because that would be interesting. If not a little depressing. Sometimes you really regret the properties you sell. Okay. That’s why I like to buy an old philosophy. But that’s not the one I’m going to use as my good deal. Although that was a pretty good deal. I told you before though, the thing I do want to say about that is this is that I had what most people would consider a bad experience on my first deal, okay, it was bad, then it became good. I bought the property. I bought it with almost no money down from a client, my client, Jim will who had purchased a few properties from me and didn’t like this one and asked me to take the listing and sell it to a buyer. And I said, No, Jim, I don’t want to sell it for you. I want to buy it from you. So I bought it from my own client. And I had a bad tenant who didn’t pay and I had to evict them and they really thrashed the property. They really destroyed it. And you know, that could have discouraged my whole real estate career. If I did not at age 20 keep My emotions in check, right and look at the big picture. And I did. And I ended up selling that property and I made a decent profit on it, but I sold it right after that to another investor who’s doing a 1031 exchange. Yes, back in the dark ages and, you know, 1776 they had 1031 exchanges. Were wasn’t quite that long ago but close enough. Okay, so I’m not going to use that one though. I’m gonna use my second deal. Okay, my second deal was this. This was a condo that I actually moved into. And it was in Irvine, California. And it was on Remington street in another area that I ended up farming called Northwood horizons in Irvine, California. condo complex 348 units remember it? Well, I was the number one Northwood horizons realtor for many, many years, as I would sell those properties for clients, but this one was interesting, and here’s why. It’s interesting and I’ve shared this story before in my various seminars and so forth. That property was $102,000. And it was a two bedroom, two bath condo it was brand new. It was 944 square feet. It was the Columbia floor plan. And it was a really cute little condo. And I bought that property. And I think it was 22 years old probably when I bought it. And the way the deal went was like this. I financed 90% of the purchase price of $102,000. And I borrowed the 10% from my lovely late grandmother, and she loaned me the money and I owned that property for 11 months. That’s it? Yeah, very short time, short ownership. But it was during a booming market. And so the price went up a lot when it was under construction. Okay, and this happened to a lot of our clients in St. Louis and Kansas City. And I know some of our clients have have late, had some tough experiences in Kansas City. And some are not quite played out yet, because of construction delays and a developer who’s hit hard times, you know who you are, right? I know. I know I’m there with you. Anyway, sometimes though, this can really work to your benefit. And I’ll give you an example. I’m moving. I’m jumping around here a little bit, but you know, me, I’m always on tangents. So a few of our clients this happened to but I’ll just give you a one rough example of how it happened. They purchased the property in Kansas City, massive delays and construction and fortunately, the market was going up, up up but you know, during the delays, and they basically scored big time, okay, and they’re not the only ones okay? And I don’t want to mention names, but their property went up in value tremendously and They refinanced it. And I think they got all of their money out and they still own the property isn’t that wonderful about real estate? You can, you can pull all your money out potentially later and still own and control the asset. It’s like you got a free investment. Don’t try that with a mutual fund. just not gonna work. Okay, so my property my deal here on Remington Street, hundred and 2000 I bought it, sold it 11 months later, to my friend Mike, who he wasn’t my friend at the time, but he became my longtime friend. And Mike bought that property for $159,000. And you would think, okay, if I put 10% down and we’ll just call it a year to round it off, make it easy, that my return on investment would be 60,000 roughly, well, you got closing costs, so just make it 50,000 Okay. 50,000 Gain on a $10,000 investment in one year would be how much? It would be a five times return or a 500% return on investment. But of course, that wouldn’t quite be accurate. Because I lived there. I moved in. I lived there, it was the first time I moved out of the house, I lived with my mom until then. And that would be great 500% ROI. But you’d have to take away from from that my monthly expense because I was living there. So I was paying for it. I wasn’t receiving rental income. So it wasn’t a breakeven in that respect. But it was better than that. Why was a better? Well, you know what I’m going to say? Because my late grandmother loaned me the money to buy it. So basically, I had an infinite return on investment on that beyond my second deal. That was my second real estate deal of my life. Okay. And so 500% would have been pretty awesome. But infinites even better, right? And so, this is one of the things you can do with like this life insurance stuff, for example. And, you know, as we ran that spot for patent Gary, talking about the beer own bank concept, right? You know, one of the listeners was critical of that. And he reached out and said, You know, I don’t know why you’re promoting this, blah, blah, blah. And, you know, I want to hear more about that. But, you know, basically, the concept is that, you know, everybody would love to buy real estate with no money down, right? I know all of you listening would love to do that and you just can’t do it anymore. You can’t do it directly. Right. But the real estate deal I just described to you I didn’t do it directly, either. I didn’t go to the bank and get 100% financing. I didn’t work out at all. For a complicated deal with the seller to get 100% financing, now, the bank gave me 90%. And my grandmother gave me 10%. Now, you can’t really do that either nowadays because the, the the lending rules, the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac rules are more strict, right? They’re not gonna let you borrow the down payment from anybody else. But back then, they weren’t very strict about any of this stuff, you know, you could kind of do all kinds of things you can’t do nowadays. And so it’s changed, but you can borrow it from a life insurance policy. And that could be your down payment. Right? But you of course, you have to pay for the life insurance policy, right? Well, you know, these are just moving the cups around and kind of the, the legitimate version of what’s called a shell game, right. You know, usually when you say a shell game, it’s not legitimate, but this is the legitimate way to do a shell game, if you will. Okay. Okay. So that’s what I’m going to use it My best deal now certainly I’ve done way bigger deals since then. apartment complexes mobile home park, I just got a report from my partner and in my mobile home park and that deals looking pretty good. We spent a lot of money in capital improvements, but it’s it’s turning out really nicely. So that one’s going well. I’ve talked to you in the past on past episodes about the apartments I’ve bought and sold, and the single family home deals I’ve done. And you know, again, all things considered. The humble little single family homes are still my favorite deal. Those bigger properties. I mean, I’ve had, I have two apartments now. And I had to in the past, so I’ve had four total, right, big and small little ones, big ones, right? That big one now. 139 units, another one that sold 125 units, all doing this with my partner Steve, who’s a client of ours who has purchased many single family homes from us, and he’s probably listening now. Hi, Steve. And so those deals You know, they can be good, but they’re complicated and they’re fraught with danger. Okay, they are fraught with danger. So they require a much greater degree of experience. That’s one thing. And they are hard to find very, very, very hard to source those deals. We have them occasionally, some of our clients buy them occasionally. But again, it’s not the sort of assembly line that’s easy to source. And people don’t get, you know, they don’t have horrific experiences. I’m not saying everything goes well, all the time. It certainly doesn’t. It’s just better than everything else. That’s all I can say. But the humble little single family homes just far and away my favorite worst deal. And now you know, I we’ve got like seven more parts of Mike’s question. We’re not getting to obviously, but my worst deal, I have to say would be what I chronicled on episode number four 417 this was the tax lien deal, where I bought these real estate tax liens from this company and they, you know, my claim that they ripped me off. And that’s all chronicled on episode number 417 still haven’t had any satisfaction on that deal. You know, that that I’d say was my worst deal. My second worst deal. The other guy who I’m claiming ripped me off. And I, by the way, I am in litigation, so I can’t say too much. But that is the guy in Kansas City. You know, that was the property manager that I called out and said, Hey, you know, you’re ripping me off here, and it’s not cool. And that I would have to say was my other really sad, bad deal. So those are the two good and bad. There you go. Okay. Now, I want to get to all your other questions later, another time another episode. We’re going long here. We’re already 36 minutes in so I’ve got to wrap it up. I will go over my packing and traveling secrets because I really do want to do that. I think it’s going to be just valuable to everybody. Not real estate related, but I think everybody can use it. And I just want to take a few minutes on a future episode to do that, as well. And remind you to enter our new contest for the Amazon Echo, where you’ve got Alexa, you can do that at Hartman education comm slash contest. That’s Hartman education comm slash contest. Until then, happy investing. We’ll talk to you on Wednesday on the next episode on number 864. And at that time, I will be in Tallinn, Estonia by them again. Not even increasing my country count. I’ve been there before, so I’ll still be at country number 81. Gosh, darn it. I got to get to some new countries on the strip. More to come and happy investing. Talk to you soon.
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