CW 421 – Bryan Ellis – Self-Directed IRA’s, Foreclosure Rates & Pit-Falls of Real Estate Investing with Editor of the ‘Bryan Ellis Investing Letter’

Investing guru, Bryan Ellis, joins Jason Hartman on today’s Creating Wealth Show to discuss some of the common pit-falls of investing, as well as to give some indication of the potential foreclosure rate. They consider the state of today’s smoke and mirrors economy and its impact on future investing and finances.

Key Takeaways 

04.35 – The economy’s strength situation now seems to be a lot more regional than it was around 2007-2008.

05.30 – RealtyTrac’s announcement about foreclosures shows us that we can’t build a future without finishing what we started in the past.

06.15 – People’s three fundamental needs are the same as they’ve always been: food, clothing and shelter.

13.30 – We need the world to realize that the economy we’re running off is just smoke and mirrors.

17.30 – When the changes start to take place, huge inflation could be a very real possibility.

19.00 – Investment doesn’t have to be in stocks; it can be in real estate, or even just in commodities such as copper, steel, labour etc.

21.30 – Think of a deal from the most conservative standpoint you can, and ask yourself if it makes sense.

23.20 – A lot of people still haven’t realized that intellectual property could be the answer to successful investing.

25.00 – Many companies have a lot of intellectual property that they don’t even classify as such.

26.50 – The entire structure of this intellectual property set-up focuses on the presence of a third party.

29.30 – Ultimately, the fact still remains that the fundamentals are what matter.

30.00 – For more information about Bryan’s investing strategies or to receive his newsletter, visit www.investing.bryanellis.com

Tweetables

  • There are more people being paid to not work now than in all of history combined. Tweet this!
  • The US is just too big a country; national states just don’t tell you very much. Tweet this!
  • Would an investment make sense to your conservative grandmother? If not, maybe reconsider. Tweet this!

Transcript

Introduction:
Welcome to Creating Wealth with Jason Hartman. During this program, Jason is going to tell you some really exciting things that you probably haven’t thought of before, and a new slant on investing. Fresh new approaches to America’s best investment that will enable you to create more wealth and happiness than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self-made multi-millionaire who not only talks the talk, but walks the walk. He’s been a successful investor for 20 years, and currently owns properties in 11 states and 17 cities. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to financial freedom. You really can do it, and now, here’s your host, Jason Hartman, with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Jason:
It’s my pleasure to welcome Bryan Ellis to the show; he is editor of the Bryan Ellis Investing Letter, and that’s a newsletter that I’ve been somehow getting in my email box for a while, and I find it interesting. He has some good stories and some unique stories as well, and I wanted to invite him on the show to talk about maybe two topics today: one being the foreclosure rate, and then also some very unique stuff on self-directed retirement accounts. Bryan, welcome, how are you?

Bryan:
I’m doing very well Jason, how’re you today?

Jason:
Good, it’s good to have you on the show. You’re coming to us from Atlanta, Georgia, a market that we have liked a lot over the years and still like.

Bryan:
Oh yeah, there’s a lot going on here and if you keep your eyes open, there seems to always be opportunities that are being overlooked on a national scale. Things are happening here.

Jason:
You wanted to talk about some interesting news that really runs kind of counter to the mainstream media, or as Sarah Palin called it, the ‘lamestream media’, which I always thought was great. That’s the foreclosure rate, and I have long said, Bryan, that I think this is a fake recovery. I don’t mean that the economy is going to necessarily collapse in the same way people think of with a collapse (declining prices). There’s some detail we can hash out there but tell us what’s going on and what your thoughts are on that and the new foreclosure stats that you recently learned about.

Bryan:
Well, Jason, to me the whole economy as it exists right now is a farce – it’s all a lie.

Jason:
Smoke and mirrors.

Bryan: 
Absolutely. Just ask anybody who is willing to be honest ‘What are the fundamental underpinnings of growth that we have right now? What is good that exists in this economy that didn’t exist 6 or 7 years ago?’

Jason:
Okay, so I’m going to answer that.

Bryan:
Tell me.

Jason:
Technology is doing incredible things, but granted, that doesn’t employ that many people and in some ways, it displaces employment.

Bryan:
Yeah, you’re right, it does. And you’re absolutely right: technology is a powerful force, and that, Jason, is the reason that we have forward momentum at all. It is because of that, and certainly not because of what’s going on in the broader economy, and absolutely not because of what the government is doing, that we have any perception of forward movement. The reality is there are more people not working right now than in decades. Not just that, there are more people who are being paid to not work right now than in all of history combined.

Jason:
The welfare state and the food stamp President.

Bryan:
Exactly. What we have here is an entitlement economy – a situation where our government has decided that it is better for the government to have power and influence over the citizens, rather than for the citizens to have the strength and ability to rise up and make the country stronger in a real, true fashion. So we’re in a bad way right now, and then you’ve got the foreclosure situation that you mentioned. Just today RealtyTrac came out and announced that foreclosure activity has risen for the second straight month, as of August. That’s going to take more people by surprise. What’s your opinion of the conventional wisdom out there? You think people think things are good?

Jason:
I think it really depends. I think nowadays, we are in a very very stratified market place, and a very stratified economy. Some people are doing great and they are killing it; some markets are doing pretty darn good.

Bryan:
Yeah, that’s true.

Jason:
And some are like frothy bubbles. My old home, the state of California – I lived in Southern California virtually all my life; 3 years ago I left for Arizona but I’ve got to tell you, California, I was getting a little bit envious again last year, but I don’t know. I think the bubble is already showing signs of bursting.

Bryan:
Yeah, you couldn’t have said it better, Jason.

Jason:
The mini-bubble. Not as big as the one before.

Bryan:
Yeah. It’s a lot more regional now than it was back in 2007-2008. You’re absolutely right and there are a number of markets where the market’s just on fire. Let’s take a step above that and look on a broader scale, not just at individual local markets. What we had back in 2007-08 is basically the entire country fell apart. The best we had back then was some markets that held their value. Now what we have is several specific strategic markets, and I strongly suspect that the markets you have your clients in are these. What we have now is a few markets that are doing really well and that are showing some promise, but most of the country is kind of around the +1 to -1 growth range. There’s not a whole lot going on, and the reality of this announcement from RealtyTrac is that, at least for me, it’s not surprising at all. There are things going on out there with the way the banks are dealing with foreclosures that have been left over from years past, and it’s all about that. The old foreclosure bubble still hasn’t completely burst, and nobody seems to realize it.

Jason:
It’s this fake recovery, and prices have been going up so that makes people feel like everything’s on track and okay again. I think part of that stratification issue is that I feel safe, Bryan, in necessity type of assets. The basic house that a family needs to live: that’s always going to have some demand unless it’s in an area with a declining population, like Detroit – the poster-child for the government disaster.

Bryan:
Of course.

Jason: 
I hope you’re enjoying my little snarky add-ons here.

Bryan: 
I am indeed.

Jason:
But once we get past that, in solid markets the population is increasing.

Bryan:
It is.

Jason:
And people have three fundamental needs: food, clothing and shelter, right? There, you’re okay, but if you look at overpriced markets with high land values, whether they be in Miami, or Boston, or virtually anywhere in California. I intermix states and cities here because that whole state is just over-priced, if you ask me. You can look at New York City, you look at all of the all of the expensive areas around the country, and I think they’re quite risky. Maybe I’m just getting too conservative in my old age… I used to be the gambler, I used to like the roller-coaster. Now I just like the tried-and-true linear market.

Bryan: 
I think you’re absolutely right on that analysis, and here’s why – there’s really two reasons. Particularly in California, but all over, there are markets that are really bubbling up right now, except for Texas. There are some fundamentally good things going on in Texas. Most of these markets that are really bubbling up do that because there is a certain inherent momentum to the areas themselves. It’s not because there’s anything particularly, fundamentally great about the local economy. Look at California. California’s real estate market is still going crazy right now, and I agree with you, it’s completely overvalued and it’s a bubble that will have to pop. Right now, though, it hasn’t popped. Look at the economy of California. What’s it based on?

Jason:
It’s based on government.

Bryan:
It’s based on government. Look at Hollywood right now! The entertainment industry is in huge decline.

Jason:
Interestingly, Bryan, it’s leaving California.

Bryan:
It really is.

Jason: 
And that might actually be a help for Detroit because I read some articles about how Detroit really makes sense as a place to shoot movies. It’s got lots of old decrepit buildings, it’s got lots of union workers that have been overpaid for so many years.

Bryan:
So long as the show is Walking Dead, there’s plenty of opportunity there.

Jason:
Right. They are trying to incentivize the Hollywood types to go there. They’re shooting in Wilmington, North Carolina – they’re shooting in all kinds of places!

Bryan:
Yeah, you’re right, Jason. There’s a lot going on in that way here in Atlanta, too. That’s a pretty good example of how local governments are actually starting to be smart about trying to attract those dollars. You know, California’s booming but it’s based on nothing. That is a state where they’re doing everything wrong, and yet the real estate’s going up.

Jason:
So it’s illogical.

Bryan:
It’s illogical, it’s irrational and so I think you’re right. I think carefully selecting local markets where there’s an increasing population, where there’s a good employment outlook and there’s basically just good opportunity to put the right types of people in your properties – that’s a formula for long-term success. There are going to be some ups and some downs, but overall it’s going to be a very good thing. That’s wealth building. That’s smart.

Jason:
I should say, the other thing about California, obviously is Silicon Valley. That goes without saying. Some of the California proponents and advocates say ‘Look how much venture capital is flowing in to California blah blah blah’, and I do agree with that, but there is so much poverty in that state. It’s like a banana republic where you’ve got this rich class and this low class and the middle class in California is just being eviscerated. I spent decades there, and I have seen middle class people, friends of mine included, just leaving the state in droves. The rich can protect themselves from the government’s taxation, to some extent, with unique protection strategies and structuring and so forth, and businesses elsewhere. The poor get the benefits of government, but the middle class are just under attack.

Bryan:
Yeah, you’re absolutely right and you know, that exodus is not just limited to the middle class either. There’s been a massive movement of businesses, specifically from California to Texas.

Jason:
Right, no question.

Bryan:
That sort of thing is going to continue, but the bottom line here, Jason is that foreclosures keep going up – or have for the last couple of months – and it’s surprising news to the typical person out there. Most people think things are improving on the housing front.

Jason:
So in terms of those foreclosures, can we segment that at all? Is that higher-end properties? Is it certain geographies? Or is it just general national stats which honestly, Bryan, in the United States, it’s just too big a country. National stats just don’t tell you very much.

Bryan:
Well, yes and no. I agree with you to some extent. There is absolutely no such thing as a national real estate market, but foreclosure data is something where there’s enough data that it is something that’s useful to aggregate. This data is basically on a national level, and if you look, there is a reasonably correlation between the national foreclosure rate and the state of the housing economy as a whole, over the last several years. That’s why I pay attention to this. This particular issue is curious to me not because of the data itself, but because of the potential effect on the populous out there. For months now, Jason, all we’ve been hearing is “Real estate’s booming; it’s great out there, things are getting better, it’s time to buy!”

Jason:
Actually, for a couple of years.

Bryan:
Yeah, that’s absolutely right. So this is different. This has not been happening. I know, and I suspect you know that the reason this is happening is because banks have been holding onto bad notes for years and years at this point, with whatever strategy they were hoping to deal with, but the reality is they just didn’t foreclose like they should have, or in a reasonable time-frame. Now they have this huge inventory of bad notes. That’s what’s going on here – they’re just dealing with that. The relevance of this, I think, is that average Joe on the street will probably never hear this data yet. It’s going to have to be several months worth of this before it gets down to the Homer Simpson level, but when it gets to that level, what you start to see is a change in the fundamental belief and confidence in the economy and in housing. In housing, specifically, that’s something that we all have to be concerned about and care about. Once the emotion shifts, once people out there start to realize that what they’re looking at in the economic world today is smoke and mirrors and a bubble, that’s when we reach the peak. In fact, that’s where we’re just a little bit over the peak and the downhill slide accelerates. So to me, this is interesting not because of the data itself, but because of the trend that it creates, or potentially creates for bad economic emotional results.

Jason:
It seems like there’s two economies and two classes of investors out there. There are people who control paper and fiat money and fiat things like stock certificates, and then there are people that control real assets that people really need: commodity-based assets, resource-based assets. It’s the paper economy, the smoke and mirrors economy, the Wall Street economy – those are the people that cause these swings because they can move and manipulate such large pools of assets so quickly and abruptly, and that’s the dangerous part. If we would just get back to a resource-based economy where we had sound money and real supplies. For example, Bryan, we talk doom and gloom, and we talk like “Oh gosh, things are getting bad”, but it’s interesting because if you woke up in 2005, you thought the world was booming and real estate was booming (and it was! At least temporarily; that was towards the end, obviously), you thought everything was rosy and sunshine all the way. And then you woke up in 2008 and you thought, “Oh my God, it’s the end of the world”, the interesting thing about it is the world had pretty much, in those two completely different times in the way they felt, it had pretty much the same amount of resources. There was almost the same amount of oil, there was the exact same amount of land, there was about the same amount of water, same amounts of copper, gold, silver. That didn’t change. It was just the symbols of all that stuff that changes. It really re-orients assets. It’s not that the world gets poorer, it’s just that the assets re-allocate and we’ve got to put ourselves on the right side of that equation, don’t we?

Bryan: 
Yeah, I think that’s a very astute observation, Jason. It is merely the representation of those assets that changes, and not the assets themselves. That’s what the whole derivative mess was about. There was just simply nothing real behind all of that. Whenever mortgages started to be sold as packages without any of the buyers ever understanding what they were buying, just based largely on the smoke and mirrors that existed at the time. These were very very sophisticated buyers. Lehman Brothers has gone; it’s amazing! So yeah, you’re right.

Jason:
I take it that you think the foreclosure trend will increase – you think we’ll have more foreclosures?

Bryan:
I suspect that. I am not a hard-core data guy. My gut and my observation of the real economy suggests that there is nothing fundamental to support what we have going on right now, which is…

Jason:
It’s smoke and mirrors growth.

Bryan:
Growth that’s not explainable.

Jason:
The Fed is always trying to pump up one bubble, and then the other.

Bryan:
It really is.

Jason:
Right now, they’re pumping the real estate bubble and the stock bubbles both at the same time. We’ve got massive student loan debt. After this, they’ll try and pump up another bubble. They always move bubble to bubble. It’s like a musical chairs game.

Bryan:
Basically what that is, Jason, is on the one hand there’s welfare and entitlements given to individuals. On another hand, there is foreign aid given to other countries, and on yet another hand, this pumping action, this basic inflationary tendency that the government has is the way that the economy itself is put on entitlement and put on welfare. This is also how the business community is put on welfare. If you look at it, what we have in the stock market right now has just boomed for the last several years, but what’s that due to? It’s due to nothing other than the government propping it up. We don’t know what things are really worth right now.

Jason:
It’s just a big money printing party again, and that always ends badly. What do you think is coming next? If the other shoe is going to drop, which I believe it certainly could, what can we plan for? Inflation, deflation, stagnation?

Bryan:
I suspect there’s going to be a lot of inflation. We’re probably going to see some pockets of deflation for very short periods of time, but I expect fundamentally inflation. That’s simply because there’s so much not real money that’s floating around out there. The government’s pumped in $80 billion a month just into the stock market. That’s nothing else, just the stock market. I don’t see any way for anything other than the devaluation of our currency to continue. I really think that what you were talking about earlier is right – about putting people into assets that have fundamental, real value, which doesn’t include stocks, because stock is just paper.

Jason:
It’s fiat money.

Bryan: 
Now, I’m not completely against paper assets. For example, I’m a big investor in notes and mortgage notes.

Jason:
Yeah, I like notes too. You’ve got to know what you’re doing though, there’s a lot of fraud.

Bryan:
Oh yeah, you certainly do, but what I like about notes, and it’s the same thing I like about real estate: there’s something real behind it. It’s a real asset with real value that has a real potential to be sold and made into cash. You can’t do that with a stock certificate, once the stock market falls apart.

Jason:
And it’s even better than that, Bryan, because I talk about something I call the ultimate investing equation. I don’t even really like real estate per se. What I like is all the commodities that go into it. I like getting super ultra-cheap or free land, and then just paying for construction materials. I always say I’m a commodities investor; I like copper, that’s wire, and maybe pipes too; I like steel; I like glass; I like concrete; I like lumber; I like petroleum products and energy and labour that goes into those houses. And so if I can buy that at or better yet, below the cost of actual construction like so many of our clients did over the past several years, that’s just an awesome investment. And then it gets better – you get the bank to pay for 75-80% of it. You only put in 1/5 or 1/4 of the investment, and you borrow the rest, and then that borrowing doesn’t really come at any real cost because you outsource the debt to a tenant, and they pay the debt, plus they give you an extra $200 or so per month. It’s a pretty great deal. If you can duplicate that 40, 50, 60, 100 times. Wow! Duplicate it just a dozen times and you’re in pretty good shape.

Bryan:
I think the key to that is just making sure you get in at the right price. To me, that’s everything. Any time you buy real estate, look back at the last 15-20 years, and look and see what was the worst peak-trough drop that happened, and if you can get in on a situation where you’ve got a strong equity position that is at least a substantial portion of the biggest peak-trough drop that happened in the last 15-20 years, then not only do you have a great asset that the bank is essentially paying for, you’ve got a great asset that’s not going to hurt you whenever the inevitable ups and downs come. That’s a powerful situation.

Jason:
Right, I call that sustainable investing. You’ve got to have something that will be self-sustaining, and that means pay attention to your debt coverage ratio, and just make sure you’ve got a good debt coverage ratio on that asset. You were talking before, Bryan, about inflation and deflation, and how the overall – and we agree on this – trend is inflationary, with maybe little spots and bouts of deflation. I just wanted to say that trying to time and pick those areas of deflation is like being the gambler in California or Manhattan, New York, trying to pick the appreciation cycles. It’s very risky. I’ve never met anybody who can reliably predict inflation or deflation in real estate prices. I’m not saying that about the overall economy, I’m just talking about appreciation or depreciation, I should say, rather than inflation and deflation – same idea. So just buy good quality assets that pay for themselves and that give you something extra.

Bryan:
You’re totally right, Jason. I call it the grandmother rule. Would it make sense to my grandmother?

Jason:
Right, exactly, your conservative grandmother; would that make sense to her? If you do that in business-friendly climates – we love Texas and we’ve done business in all the major Texas cities, as well as Georgia etc. – the Right to Work states that are in the South East are great. Look at all these auto manufacturers coming in there. They’re not moving to Detroit, even though that did become a Right to Work state recently, which is kind of amazing.

Bryan:
It really is, isn’t it. That could be a harbinger of good things for Detroit.

Jason:
But Bryan, this is a great discussion, but I wanted to make sure we got some time to talk about some of your unique self-directed investing strategies.

Bryan:
There are a lot of people who are familiar with self-directed IRAs, self-directed 401Ks and those sorts of things. Those can be absolutely critical for anybody who is looking to save for retirement. I am of the opinion that it doesn’t always make sense to buy real estate through an IRA or through a 401K, just because there are other really great tax advantages that are inherent to real estate investments that don’t necessarily make sense or really aren’t even available or relevant in the context of a self-directed IRA or 401K. Having said that, one of the things that my clients in the self-directed investor society tend to be really interested in getting involved in, and this particularly tends to be entrepreneurs among them, is intellectual property. If you think about it, where in the world is there more leverage that in intellectual property? It’s even better than in real estate because in intellectual property, you can create a thing by writing something on a piece of paper, and now it’s intellectual property and all you’re got to do is find some interested third party to use that and lease it from you, and now you’ve got a cash cow. Very few people are doing this.

Jason: 
Tell us more about that. It’s interesting that part of one of the Rich Dad books is about intellectual property, and I remember reading that and I hold several trademarks – one one of my companies does, I should say – and I’m very much interested in that angle. The challenge is that there’s got to be a real market for that intellectual property, in order for it to be worth anything, right?

Bryan: 
Wrongo, Sir.

Jason:
Oh, okay, tell me more.

Bryan:
That’s the beauty of this.

Jason:
I am taking notes.

Bryan:
The reason that entrepreneurs tend to be particularly interested in the strategy that we teach is because with proper structuring, the intellectual property that is used in your business that you use on a daily basis can be essentially outsourced to a retirement program or plan, ultimately for your benefit, but that you can pay into. You can be the market for that intellectual property.

Jason:
Oh, okay, so in other words it’s your own intellectual property, but you’re using it between yourself or your company and your retirement account, as separate entities, right?

Bryan:
Absolutely. Now this is a sticky thing, it’s not a simple thing, and you have to dot the i’s and cross the t’s exactly right, otherwise you’re going to be doing something called self-dealing, which is a very bad thing. But just think about it Jason: the patents and trademarks that you have – they’re worth something to your company. They’re absolutely worth something to your company. There are probably a lot of things that you don’t even have reduced to formal intellectual property, that are really worth something.

Jason:
Sure, there’s Goodwill and all kinds of systems and things.

Bryan: 
Yeah, exactly. The process you use for having your staff set up a room whenever you do a seminar – that’s a process, and there are probably a gazillion of them. If there was a way that you could offload that stuff into a self-directed retirement account for your benefit and then have your company lease that, or sign a formal rental or usage agreement, then what you have is a situation where you have created your own market, and every dollar you spend for the use of your own property is not only going to be spent anyway, but it is 100% tax-free forever.

Jason:
Wow, this is really intriguing. OKay, so how does someone do that? What’s the technique?

Bryan:
That’s a substantial conversation, and it does involve attorneys because it’s a different answer. It’s the same fundamental answer for every person, but there are a lot of specifics that are different. I will tell you in general. The idea is that there are completely independent third parties that are really interested in doing business with folks like me and you who are creating intellectual property that can be of benefit to our own businesses, but not directly. It is frequently the case that either a third party entity can be formed that’s owned by someone else entirely, and you’ve got to pick that somebody carefully. There are a number of ways to do that very intelligently so that you can have a third party entity owning that stuff and placing it into a retirement account, essentially for your benefit, but not necessarily directly for your benefit. There’s a little creative thinking that’s involved here, and there are generally two or three different layers of activity, but that’s the nature of how this works: you have an independent, unrelated third party that gets involved in this. They’re going to take a little bit of the money – they might take 10% of whatever you’re paying to use your own intellectual property, but if you’re paying more than 10% in taxes, that’s a gimme. Furthermore, what that does is it lets you put a much larger amount of money into your self-directed retirement account for use in the here and now. It’s really hard to beat, but it’s not a simple thing. It’s also not something that’s appropriate for the entrepreneur who has just started their business and is trying to get on their feet. This is more something for people who have already experienced a level of success and they are trying to protect themselves from the horrible effects of taxes. So it is a powerful thing. We don’t focus just on that type of strategy; we also focus on joint venture arrangements for funding our deals so we don’t ever have to go into debt.

Jason:
Bryan, you have a lot of subscribers to your newsletter. I just want to give you a chance before you go: are there any other hot stories? You don’t have to tell us all about them in depth, but just mention them, and then just give out your website.

Bryan:
Yeah, well there’s always something interesting going on. We recently had a story – and this one went like gang-busters – which was just kind of anecdotally interesting. The original Playboy mansion was in Chicago. It’s still there but is basically just a bunch of condos at this point, and what’s interesting is that over a long period of time, Chicago has gone up in value, but that particular piece of real estate has really kind of stayed exactly where it is for years and years. That’s fascinating to me because you would think that having the kind of notoriety and the brand recognition that that has would make it a much more desirable property. I think, Jason, the real lesson here is that fundamentals are what matter; not flashiness, not crazy branding, but fundamentals. In that case, who really deeply cares if they end up with a condo in the Playboy mansion? Ultimately nobody, because the value really hasn’t changed over time.

Jason:
What is your website?

Bryan:
My website is www.investing.bryanellis.com.

Jason:
Good stuff, well, very interesting discussion, Bryan, thanks for joining us today. I’ll bet you what we talked about is probably going to come true in terms of inflation and just the way this is all going to work out. I don’t know how it can do anything else. With history as our guide, the evidence is just overwhelming.

Bryan:
Yeah, there’s got to be a little blood-letting.

Jason:
You’ve just got to prepare yourself for it and plan for it, and you can actually benefit from it.

Bryan:
Absolutely.

Jason:
Good stuff, well it was great having you on the show.

Bryan:
Thank you, Jason, it’s been my pleasure.

Outro A:
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Outro B:
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If you want to be able to sit back and collect cheques every month, just like a banker, Jason’s Creating Wealth Encyclopaedia series is for you.

Outro:
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