We are all confused about economic indicators and it’s critical that we understand the real figures, the direction of the economy, interest rates and their consequences, and much more. On this episode, Jason Hartman interviews Bernie Baumohl, author of Secrets of Economic Indicators, in regard to the numerous economic indicators and what is most useful. Bernie explains what a “business cycle” is and what happens during the cycle, how it comes full circle over time.
Bernie gives examples of stress points in the business cycle. People make mistakes, such as buying more inventory than they need or the economy can’t handle the demand of the people. More recently, we have seen longer periods of economic growth, but at a closer look, the mistakes that caused the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression are apparent. It was a “cauldron of fraud and wrecklessness,” says Bernie. Jason and Bernie touch on the subject of the Federal Reserve and the Gold Standard, citing what has been happening in Greece as an example of the limitations of a currency that is fixed and unmovable. Bernie feels that a country in economic trouble needs to have the flexibility to lower interest rates. They also discuss market sensitivity, the index, and the source of the leading market indicators.
Bernard Baumohl is chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group. He is well known for being ahead of the curve in assessing the direction of the U.S. and world economy. Mr. Baumohl began his career as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank specializing on international affairs. He later served as an economist at European American Bank with responsibilities to monitor the global economy and develop forecasts. Mr. Baumohl was also an award-winning reporter with TIME magazine who covered the White House, Federal Reserve and Wall Street. Apart from his role as chief global economist, Mr. Baumohl also teaches at the New York Institute of Finance and is a regular commentator on Public Television’s Nightly Business Report. A sought after international speaker, Mr. Baumohl has been recognized for his forecasting accuracy. He has lectured at New York University and Duke University, and is often cited in the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New York Times, Business Week, Barron’s, and the Financial Times.
Mr. Baumohl is author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities (Wharton School Publishing, 2nd edition). The best-selling book is winner of the Readers Preference Editor’s Choice Award for Finance and has been translated into several languages, including Russian and Chinese. He is also a recipient of the John Hancock Award for Excellence in Financial Journalism, and is a member of the National Association for Business Economics and the American Economic Association. Mr. Baumohl holds an M.A. from Columbia University.
Episode: CW 258: Business Cycles with Bernie Baumohl Author of ‘The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends’
Guest: Bernie Baumohl
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