A Nation of Enrons

A must read…

A Nation of Enrons

Seth Jayson
March 20, 2008

An understatement: We are living through a time of considerable market and economic turmoil. Since we stand to see trillions of dollars’ worth of assets vaporize in the ensuing mess, we ought to take a look at history to see how we got into it, and how investors can get out.

Half a decade ago, the entire nation was shocked when award-winning “innovator” Enron turned out to be little more than a cash-shredding pyramid scheme. The crucial failing for investors was Enron’s use of opaque, “mark-to-market” accounting. The problem comes when the market is batty (or doesn’t exist), so you instead mark your assets to a model, especially one that’s wrong, either because you made an error or because you based it on exceedingly generous assumptions.

In the end, we learned that Enron’s accounting was pretty much mark-to-fairy-tale, with the company booking enormous gains from assumed future profits on schemes (like bandwidth trading) that sounded great, but had little chance of producing anything besides headlines.

Andy Fastow, meet Fred and Ethel
You might think we’d learned our lessons about fantasy accounting after Enron, but you would be wrong. Things actually got worse. The infection moved to the comfy-sounding “homeownership” market. Against a star-spangled, feel-good backdrop touting the “American Dream,” our recent mark-to-model mania tripped up a lot more than one big company. In fact, it swept through the entire banking world. (Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is not the first to choke on lousy, poorly modeled mortgage-backed securities “income,” and I’ll eat a Miami condo if it’s the last.)

But more dangerous yet was the way this mania also infected millions of aspiring real-estate moguls (Jason’s comment: gamblers and speculators – not real investors buying prudent rental properties). The most widespread mark-to-model fantasies were actually committed not by some easy-to-blame Wall Street suit, but by Fred and Ethel down the street.

It was flawed models (and the habit of booking earnings on these models) that enabled financial companies to concoct the elaborate securities that funded the bubble. And yes, the bank CEOs who paid themselves handsome bonuses ahead of the hurricane deserve a public flogging. But they weren’t the only ones making out like bandits. While Wall Street was booking fantasy profits on bad assumptions about real estate, Fred and Ethel down the street were operating under their own mark-to-model dreams.

Really …
In their model, house prices always go up (Jason’s comment:  because they aren’t really investors, just speculators seeking instant gratification on sexy deals that never made economic sense). In their model, you can pay any price for a home, so long as you can make the monthlies with a teaser-rate ARM, never mind the upcoming adjustment to 9%. In their model, you avoid that via a refinance down the line with an equity cash-out to boot. In their model, it’s OK to buy on a less-than-forthcoming, Alt-A “liar’s loan,” because there’s no real punishment for lying on a mortgage application — particularly if everyone’s doing it. With this model, it makes sense to buy three other homes, in order to flip them later. And it makes sense to extract HELOC cash from the home, based on fantasies about continually increasing “equity.”

This is not so different from what Enron was doing. Fred and Ethel were marking up the value of their assets (the home) to a model (their belief that real estate prices always go up) and then spending the “income” immediately, on iPods, Hummers, $250 jeans, and fancy vacations. This happened all over the country, and millions of people behaved the same way. In fact, the American Fantasy of owning a home (for no money down) that would provide leveraged, 10% annual returns for a decade, is precisely what enabled those Wall Street suits to do what they did. It takes two to tango, folks. And this was the biggest dance party in economic history.

Last year’s model got ugly
Alas, this dream’s “income” wasn’t actually matched by real cash flows, just bank loans — precisely the problem at Enron. The “income” was all hot air. And now that the “income” from home appreciation has turned negative, it must be supported by cash mortgage payments. But many people can’t pay those bills, the mortgages are defaulting in huge numbers, and now, we are all paying a price, even those of us who didn’t throw our money into a flimsy, overpriced McMansion.

Stocks have been creamed. The losses at those companies most directly victimized by their own housing-bubble ineptitude — Bear Stearns, Citigroup (NYSE: C), and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) — are easy to understand. But, of course, the losses have extended much further than that. Even mighty Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has dropped like a rock, as investors wonder how many iPods can be sold in Foreclosureville, U.S.A. And if they can’t afford their beloved iPods, what will they buy? That’s the thinking that has crushed everything from trendy togs-sellers like Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ) to carmakers like GM (NYSE: GM). Consumers are spending less, and we appear to be headed directly into a recession.

So ugly it’s cute?
By now, it ought to be clear that I have been, and remain, one of the most vocal econo-bears you will find on these pages. I am certain that systemic failure has steered us into a terrifying run at the ditch, to be followed by a painful, protracted rough patch. It was all spawned by greed gone amok on Wall Street and Main Street.  (Jason’s comment: that’s for sure – just another Wall Street sponsored Ponzi Scheme – there are so many, who’s counting anymore?  Here’s the proven plan: buy some prudent rental properties in diverse markets, rent them to our ever growing population, let inflation and your tenant pay the loans down, get fantastic tax benefits and control your future as a direct investor with no Wall Street fat cats taking all the profits!)

Happy Investing,
Jason