In this Flashback Friday episode, Jason Hartman interviews Rodney Johnson, President, and Editor of Dent Research. Rodney discusses whether the US economy is slowing and why investors should build income streams instead of relying on equity markets.
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Jason Hartman 1:15
It’s my pleasure to welcome Rodney Johnson to the show. He is president and editor of dent research, and that is Harry dents company. As you know, we’ve had Harry dent on the show several times now and I’m a big follower of their work and just love what they do. And Rodney, welcome. How are you today? I’m doing great, Jason, how are you? Good, good. Well, it’s great to have you on and you are coming to us from somewhere in Florida, I believe. Right. I am Tampa, Florida. Fantastic, beautiful place. Well, you guys last time I had Harry on the show. He was talking about gold dropping below $750 an ounce. And I thought that prediction was crazy. And later in the interview, he started saying it might even go down to 250 an ounce and I thought oh my gosh, that’s that is one bold per day. Probably one of his boldest ever possibly, what are your thoughts? And then you know, now that it’s been several months, have you revised that prediction at all? Or?
Rodney Johnson 2:08
Well, we haven’t, in which you’ll find the difference between Harry and me is he’ll pick an absolute number based on technicals. And I’m more of a direction guy. So the general view is certainly that gold is set to go lower, not higher. That shocks a lot of people, particularly people who pay attention to finances because they’re used to gold being that thing that runs in times of uncertainty and inflation. And so we definitely have uncertainty, you know, kind of floating around the world. They’re looking for inflation, they just keep looking looking looking. And they’re not finding it. They think they will. Our view is that gold is certainly a hedge against those things, but we’re not going to have inflation, and then it’s going to work just like a commodity. It’s gonna work like maybe not corn per se, but it’s going to work like, you know, oil and it’s going to work like the other Softs. And so as we have kind of an economic slowdown you’re going to See the demand for gold pullback and that’s what’s going to drive it lower again the bloom is off the rose ever everybody getting excited, running it through all the forward contracts of the 2000s running it through, you know the excitement or craziness around the financial crisis. Now it’s sitting it’s already a third lower and it looks at your load as well.
Jason Hartman 3:19
You may not know this about me, but I am most definitely not a gold bug. I’m not a silver bug. I think the metals have a limited place. But you know, I think it’s pretty limited. I mean, they don’t produce income. They don’t have tax benefits. In fact, they have terrible tax treatment. You know, the taxes are collectible, they’re awful. And and you know me I love income property because it’s got great tax benefits, it produces income, and if you have a deflationary environment, there’s no place to go to get yield and right now you could argue we’ve had very low inflation I you know, you can also argue it’s been 910 percent to depends who you’re talking to. But either way deflationary environment, everybody’s searching for some kind of yield because nothing pays right? In an inflationary environment. You’re looking for a hedge. So I’m just not a gold fan. However, I don’t know how you guys really think we have deflation. What do you what do you base that on? Do you base it on technology? Do you base it on just general anemic global economy? Where do you get the deflation argument from?
Rodney Johnson 4:27
Well, and you know, you made a couple of great points on gold. So I’ll clean that up and then walk over into deflation. I tell people probably a lot of what you tell people is that there’s gold that you hold because you think the world might go to zero and things will be crazy. And then there’s gold that you buy and sell as an investment. We’re not a fan of the second one because we just don’t see it. Now on the first one, I own a little bit of gold. As I tell people I own some physical gold. It’s it’s in coins, and whatever it is, yeah. Well, I don’t know where mine is because my wife won’t tell me but it’s somewhere And it’s that hedge against calamity. And I tell people buy enough gold to let you sleep at night after that, they’ll do something else with your money. And we’re like you, we’ve been telling people for years when the financial crisis hits, which we were talking about for 20 years, pointing to the 2008 2010 timeframe, when it hits, what you’re gonna want to do is build streams of income, because then you have cash and what will be a deflationary environment. And so that gets us to the next point. When people talk about inflation and deflation. They almost always focus on one side of the equation. I don’t know why. They look at it and say, well, prices aren’t dropping. I get that all prices are not dropping. That’s true. But some prices actually are fairly flat like cars. Some prices like technology are dropping. We haven’t seen a drop in commodity prices, things priced on world markets because we’ve been printing 6070 $80 billion a month. I mean, that’s what that Be you can’t do quantitative easing in every large central bank on the planet and not have an effect. And so with that being said, we’ll look at the effect, but we don’t have runaway inflation anywhere. It just doesn’t exist. But you’re looking at the other side of the equation, and it’s wages. And I don’t know why people don’t look at this more closely. Wages are clearly a part of the inflation deflation equation. Because in inflation, you need rising prices, then you need rising wages to pay for it. We don’t have that we’ve talked about everybody’s talked about the flat incomes in America. There are too many employees out there. There’s slack demand so that employers have the upper hand, they can choose not to pay as much they can choose to keep things flat for years. And that’s the way it’s been. And so when you look at it on the wage side, we’re clearly in a deflationary environment. On the pricier side, we’re getting a gentle rise higher, and that’s with this phenomenal push and tailwind from quantitative easing. Just imagine where we If we weren’t doing this right now, okay.
Jason Hartman 7:02
So a couple of things, Rodney, I really like your, your analysis there. So here’s what I’m going to pick at number one, quantitative easing has no limit, it can go to infinity and beyond, as Buzz Lightyear would say, there’s no limit to the amount of money creation that can occur. So we you know, we have a certain amount now, it’s, it’s maybe tapering a little bit, but in the future, it could be whatever, there’s no limit whatsoever, and Zimbabwe has most certainly proven that. But the second issue is the wages and that’s a very good point that you bring up. However, I don’t think it’s just an issue of inflation, or deflation versus wages. It’s an issue of something having to give and that’s really a three part answer. It’s a triad of inflation, deflation, wages and standard of living. So if you look at Europe, for example, and I’ll use I’ll pick on Europe, Maybe particularly Spain, which is a massive disaster. I was there over the summer. What a mess that country is. It’s like the next Greece. And the standard of living is what gives, so you can have stagnant or declining wages. And you can have rising prices and the thing that’s lost there is, is the standard of living has to decline. Right? I mean, I mean, the standard of living is not fixed. It can go down. You’re absolutely correct. You’re absolutely correct. And in in economies that move in cycles, which all economies move in cycles. Remember, you’re listening to flashback Friday. Our new episodes are published every Monday and Wednesday.
Rodney Johnson 8:44
The piece that happens is you have a change in psychology, you have a you have growth via you know, positive investment malinvestment, whichever, you know School of Economics, you want to walk through there and you have growth in the economy. People have their assets rising in price. have their wages going up, they feel pretty good, they take some more risk, they buy more assets, they go up in price, they feel even better. And so it becomes this growing virtuous cycle where things are building on themselves. And that’s very positive in the overall economy. And it includes credit, it’s always included credit. And what happens, of course, as we all know, is that one day, whatever a bubble burst doesn’t matter which one you want to choose going back to the South Seas or Mississippi land, whatever, the bubble bursts, and the credit then of course evaporates, and you have money destruction, credit is just another form of money. And so when that goes away, money itself becomes dear. And so then you have deflation because the money becomes more and more valuable and it can buy more and more goods. And what gives, as you clearly pointed out, is standard of living. It’s what always gives and the psychology turns to risk averse from risk taking. And so as the economy adjusts to the lower level of spending as it adjust to this more risk averse. Psychology standpoint, and the money becomes more dear the people who have the money are now in control. Instead of the people who are creating credit, it’s a change. And it’s a wave. And the wave always happens after the previous wave of credit creation. We’re on the downside, and I’m glad you picked Spain. It’s a fabulous example. Clearly malinvestment, they created credit, you know, taking deposits from all around the world because they had a little higher interest rates than other euro zone’s turned around and built a ton of stuff, all the vacation properties and things had a huge growth in Spain that really wasn’t productive clearly, as they adjust to the destruction and reduction of credit. They can’t print more because they’re on the euro. And so what happens is they have to give back some of what they borrowed forward, and they borrowed forward for a higher standard of living, and now they got to give it back and it’s painful, but that adjustment is what deflation looks like.
Jason Hartman 10:57
Yeah, and I tell you, if I am To pick one malady one or the other, I would pick inflation. Because I think inflation. Number one, I love investing for it. I think I have a great strategy, investing for, you know, inflation, by commodities with long term fixed rate debt. I mean, I think that’s a complete home run. And my favorite commodity is income properties. And so you know, you’re investing in, in what I call packaged commodities, lumber, copper, wire, glass, steel, concrete, energy, petroleum products and stuff, right. And, of course, land too. But I don’t even really mention land because I don’t really think the real estate is that limited. Honestly, I know everybody says, they’re not making any more land, blah, blah, blah. You know, that kind of Will Rogers quote. But there The fact is, there is a lot of land and now people can work more remotely. I mean, geography is less meaningful than it’s ever been in human history, because of the Internet, and then distributed technologies. But yeah, that’s kind of a sidebar. But when it comes to deflation, I think that’s a very dangerous thing, because it causes people to wait and put off decisions. And when people are waiting, it’s just this downward spiral where they just put off decisions. And if they won’t pay anything, at least with inflation, there’s an incentive to do something because the price is going to be higher tomorrow, right?
Rodney Johnson 12:26
Well, that’s the that’s the theory. And and I’m man, I if I wrote these questions out for you, they couldn’t have been better.
Jason Hartman 12:35
This is good, because you can use them for questions for your other interviews.
Rodney Johnson 12:44
People look at inflation and they say, Well, you know, the theory of inflation is we make prices go up and that stimulates or motivates rather the consumer to purchase now so that they can buy before prices move higher. That of course, stimulates the economy because more spending, you can take the money, you can hire people pay more wages, all those things. And by
Jason Hartman 13:02
the way, I just have to give the disclaimer, I’m not talking about extreme inflation. I’m not talking about hype. No, no, no, you’re not
Rodney Johnson 13:07
wrong or higher.
Rodney Johnson 13:10
rate, you know, I’m talking about three quarters to 3%. Yeah, yeah, Phillips Curve type stuff. However, it doesn’t work. And the reason it doesn’t work is because that assumes a basic principle of just about every economic textbook, which I cannot stand, and it’s called the rational man principle, which is faced with certain parameters, a rational man would make x decision. And so that’s why we call our summit the irrational economics, because it doesn’t take advantage, or I’m sorry, it doesn’t take into account the fact that all of us have different uses for our money. I’m not saving my money to buy another television. I’ve got televisions, and so making televisions cost more isn’t going to motivate me to go buy one. All you’re going to do if you’re holding into Straight negative is you’re going to make my purchasing power disappear on the money that I’ve accumulated. And so you’re going to force me to seek out a different investment that may treat me better. But you’re not going to motivate me to spend because I’m not at the point in my life where I want to spend any money. And the same economic theory that says an economic, rational man will go spend money if he sees rising prices, says that a rational man will take all of this money out of a bank account, if he is earning a negative interest rate, which is a rate of interest that’s below the rate of inflation. Every person in America and a money market is earning negative interest right now. And I can guarantee you we’re not all taking the money out. That’s not the use of the money for us personally. And so we put the
Jason Hartman 14:47
money out just because we don’t know because we don’t get it or because we just don’t have another alternative. You know, it’s Tina, there is no alternatives.
Rodney Johnson 14:55
Well, people people have a different use for it. I don’t think people are ignorant. The fact that you know, inflation is running one and a half, which is actually fairly low, given everything going on, and yet they’re earning 30 basis points in, you know, a savings account or maybe 60 in a money market. And so they’re losing one to one and a quarter percent a year. I don’t think people are blind to it. I just think to say, look, that money in my money market isn’t meant to be spent. Now it’s for retirement is for colleges for these other Well, it could be but then you then you have the problem, right? How much do you put into any one investment? And how are you being treated in those investments, and that’s where things get pretty sticky. And that, you know, comes back to what you do and your expertise, which is course, helping people build these streams of income, which we’re very big fans of in this environment, because it keeps the cash coming in, but can’t put all your money there. And you have to have some other alternatives out there and it gets very difficult for people.
Jason Hartman 15:52
Okay. Well, you alluded to what I wanted to bring up next, and it’s kind of a segue on what we were talking about Rodney, and it’s it’s what When I really fell in love with Harry’s work was in the in the mid 90s. Because I thought what a great and, and really simple, understandable way to think about the economy, people behave certain ways at certain points in their lives, you know, of course at age 46, I think that’s the peak income earning or the peak spending, I can’t remember which correct me, but you know, you’ve and you’ve got the S curve and all of that, and I’m very much a fan of that it seems incredibly rational and not irrational. That’s what your economic summit is called. That’s great stuff. And so one of the things that you guys were saying way back in the mid 90s, is that around 2008 2013, the economy would suffer because of the aging baby boomers, and they would start to act differently. I think the premise was, they would start to liquidate assets. It would be a great time to buy a business or a McMansion, and that’s a lot of that has come true, I think, but of course, there’s a whole The whole wall street scam behind it as well of derivatives and collateralized debt obligations. And you didn’t predict all that. I don’t think early. It’s not that long. Yeah. Just a reminder, you’re listening to flashback Friday. Our new episodes are published every Monday and every Wednesday.
Rodney Johnson 17:22
Yeah, that people go through predictable ages and stages of life. You’re young, you’re spending all your nickels but frankly, you don’t have many doesn’t really matter. You get married in your mid late 20s, around 2628. Around 30 you’re having that first kid are 28 to 3042 43 the kids you know, mid teens 4647 your children start to leave home. And so what happens is, I had a boss many years ago in Texas who told me said you’re never Richard than the day before you get married. And it took me a while to figure that one out. Because the next day you have to explain why you bought stuff you know, you really needed that new set of goals. golf clubs or whatever, right? So, yeah, it but he lied to me because the truth is you’re never richer than the day before you have children. Because it doesn’t matter what you make, you’re always pushing it forward and spending on them. And you’ll do anything you can to maintain or grow their standard of living while they’re at home. And so this is the goal over that 20 year time span, once they leave, and you’re in your late 40s, early 50s. If you earn more, have more education, that sort of thing. Once they leave, their goals are different. You don’t need another big car, you don’t need more stereo equipment, you don’t need another world. You got all that. Now, in your early 50s. You start looking at the next big thing, which is retirement. And so what happens is, you’re still earning matters, right? You don’t peak in earnings till your mid to late 50s. You’re just not spending like you did. And the key here, Jason, it’s not that you’re living badly people don’t it’s not that you know, you start eating macaroni and cheese and peanut butter for dinner. You’re spending for two instead of the five or whatever it was. You’re not spending On the same things and replacement cars and appliances and stuff, and you tend to spend cash, not credit. And that can’t be overemphasized. You’re spending cash not taking out new credit. And remember credit, it’s just a different form of money creation, right? credit,
Jason Hartman 19:19
a credit is inflationary, right. Yeah. Because money because money is lent into existence. So when you borrow, you increase the money supply, which is really the credit supply, which is a subcategory, if you will of the money supply.
Rodney Johnson 19:35
Yeah, yeah. And so this is a change in the boomers. The peak number of boomers were born around 1961. Yes, I know that by behavior goes to 1964. But the peak in numerical terms is 1961. Our view was by the time they hit 4748, which is 2008 2009. They’re going to rotate to where they’re more interested in saving and spending and you’re going to see things slow down, and the government’s going to do everything. Can you change it? And it’s not gonna work? And that’s exactly where we stand. Well, if you look, you go ahead.
Jason Hartman 20:07
Yeah. See, the thing, I think is that there they can, if they, if they were, if they wanted to, they could just, they could just print more. They could just create more, they could do more QE. I mean, I, I know, they could change, they could cause inflation, instead of 85 billion a month, if they made that 200 billion a month in QE. You gotta admit there be some inflation, Rodney. Well, and this gets into a finer point, which is where does the money go? Well, okay, tell us.
Rodney Johnson 20:41
Well, and it’s not a secret. There’s nothing hidden here. It’s something that you really have to think through. The Federal Reserve has member banks that are clearly members of the Federal Reserve. That’s how we get Federal Reserve. It’s a banking system. And so if you’re a national bank, you have to have an account there when the Federal Reserve buys bonds. can only buy from these banks because they’re the ones who have accounts. And what they do is they print money, sort of, they go to you, they go to Jason’s bank who’s a member of the Fed. And they say, Jason, we want to buy $10 billion of a particular bond. You you get the bond? Do you have it in inventory, or you go buy it from somebody else, and then you send it to the Federal Reserve, and they do a keystroke to increase your account by $10 billion. That’s where the creation actually happens. The key though, is what happens next. It used to be and you made a great point A minute ago about money is lent into existence. It used to be that as Jason’s bank, you went out every single dollar that came in the door, except for your little bit of reserve ratio that you had to keep because the way you make money, of course, is lending it. Well. If you didn’t have enough borrowers, then Jason’s bank will lend to Rodney spank, you’d give me the money in the overnight market, I go into somebody. And so that way, all money got lent out except for a little bitty bit and that little bit was about 40 to $50 billion in 2008. Well, banks keep more than that on hands now they keep their excess on hand. And the reason they keep their excess on hand is because the Federal Reserve started paying them the same amount that they would get if they lent it to another bank. And so that’s what’s keeping money around. And it’s now over two and a half trillion dollars this just sitting there at the Fed, and that is
Jason Hartman 22:24
that is keeping the economy slow, right?
Rodney Johnson 22:28
Well, you’ve got a very interesting part is, is it keeping it slow? That implies that all these people are out there saying, give me credit, give me credit, give me credit, and they can’t access money because these banks are hoarding it and they won’t give it to people. And that’s the secret that I think is kind of hidden under a bushel. There isn’t this big demand for credit. There’s there’s not if you look at the National Association of Independent national federation NFIB of independent businesses, over 90% of these small businesses say I get all the Credit I want, I’ve got no problem. If you look at the very large companies, they’re issuing bonds, they’re not going to banks anymore. They’re issuing bonds, and they’re getting money for three years at 1%. They don’t need the banks. The only place where there’s a bit of a gate is homebuyers. But that’s a change in people going Wait a second, we actually should have better or tighter lending standards that we did in 2006. That was a bad idea. We’re in a better place than we were back then.
Jason Hartman 23:27
Yeah, I mean, I can tell you that my investor clients, Fannie Mae limits them at 10 loans per person, and they would love to buy 30 properties and have 30 loans. So there’s a huge demand for credit there just among my own client base for my real estate.
Rodney Johnson 23:41
That’s a real estate issue where clearly, you know, there’s one area where people are going Hey, wait a second. We did too much. overcorrected.
Jason Hartman 23:49
You mean well, they Yeah. They over overlent. And now they’ve overcorrected, maybe Right,
Rodney Johnson 23:54
right. Any manufacturing firm services firm just you know these ask people They’ve got all the credit they want. And so what’s going to happen to that two and a half trillion dollars sitting at these banks and excess reserves? That’s a very good question. It doesn’t ever have to go out the door. And that goes all the way back to a previous statement you made. They could do QE for a long time.
Jason Hartman 24:15
Okay, so the last thing I just want to ask you, Rodney is something that I’ve have not been able to really understand in talking to Harry and Okay, and we were talking about it earlier, and it was about the demographic issues and so forth. And his claim, if I am not articulating it correctly, that Generation Y the millennial generation, the one just coming up now, you know, and I think they’re up to about 3032 years old are the oldest Gen wires. Would that be correct? I mean, there are different opinions on these demographic cohorts and where they started in,
Rodney Johnson 24:50
but is that about, right? Yeah, they’re a little younger than that. But yeah, 20 Yeah,
Jason Hartman 24:55
yeah. And so a lot of them are, you know, in college now and maybe even high school. I don’t know. 30 High School still or maybe they’re through that. But the point being that he is made that kids cost everything and return nothing in terms of economic value, right. And as they enter the workforce, they become a deflationary pressure. How is that? I don’t understand that. I mean, I just don’t get
Rodney Johnson 25:20
it. A d foot? Well, I don’t I don’t know, Jason. And maybe maybe he was running fast here. He can talk very quickly. I agree. You probably noticed. Yeah.
Rodney Johnson 25:31
Our position is that when kids first enter the workforce, they’re actually inflationary. Because businesses are training them to do the work and they’re paying the money at the same time. And young people aren’t that productive yet. And so, if you if everything else is equal, and you go hire two new people in your business, you’re going to have a higher cost than you did the day before and you’re not going to be more productive. And so that’s, that’s an inflationary force. It comes into Being or it comes into play, when you have a very large generation getting into the economy all at one time, like the boomers, if you look at the chart of birth, the birth of the baby boomers was this this skyrocket mountain. And so of course, 18 to 20 years later, you had this phenomenal number of young people all entering the workforce, at the same time, looking for jobs, trying to get jobs, very inflationary. And I’m kind of a tough season. They’re in the late 60s and 70s. Right now, we have Gen Y, or millennials, which are actually a fairly large generation, there’s a ton of them. They’re just, they’re just spread over a long, long timeframe. I mean, really 25 years of these births that got higher and higher, but there was no real spike in there. And so we don’t have that same corner kind of push into the economy all at one time. They would create this inflationary sort of environment. And it’s the same time we have the boomers at the other end of the scale acting as a counterweight, who are just not running on spending their dollars like everybody wants them to. And so they’re actually the deflationary force in the economy. The boomers that aren’t spending, you got it right. They’ve got the money and everybody’s trying to motivate them to spend, and they’re going, why not what I want to do right now. Right, right.
Jason Hartman 27:15
Yeah. Yeah. Fair enough. That’s very interesting. Just one more thought on that. Here. He said that he preface that with he said to me before, look, everybody thinks inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Of course, that was famously Milton Friedman concept. And he says it’s not it’s really a demographic issue. And then and that’s when he talked about Generation Y coming into the workforce and how kids are expensive and and then they come into the workforce. And I thought he said that was a deflationary thing when they came into the workforce. But you, you you you said it was inflationary.
Rodney Johnson 27:50
Right, and I’ll tell you this is one area where Harry and I go back and forth. He’s he he is certainly said written and you know, pronounced from stage many of times. That inflation is is is a demographic outcome. It is not monetary. The caveat of that which even Harry will acknowledge is right up until a government screws it up so badly that they make inflation. And there’s no way to point at say, you know the Weimer Republic or course Zimbabwe and say that they didn’t monetarily create inflation. Certainly you can. It is it is possible. Right. Right now we have governments trying to do it, and they’re not doing it very successfully. I mean, Lord knows the Japanese would love to create it, and they’ve created a little bit, but they haven’t gotten wages to move and so that’s gonna be pretty painful. Yeah,
Jason Hartman 28:39
yeah. That’s very interesting. Well, Rodney Johnson, I know it’s late there. You’re on the east coast. So you probably got to have some family time here. So thank you so much for joining us and give out your website for dent research if you would.
Rodney Johnson 28:52
Yeah, it’s Harry dent calm. We’re easy to find
Jason Hartman 28:54
in his Harry’s book, new book out the demographic cliff. Is that out now? Yes, it is. As a matter of fact, the demographic Cliff came out several weeks ago and actually got mentioned on Drudge Report and then rush limbaugh and all sorts of places. So it’s had some pretty good press sales went through the roof. Well, it’s mentioned here and folks read all of Harry’s books. They’re excellent. So I can’t wait to read the demographic Cliff myself. And I’m gonna, I’m gonna order that right after we get off the call here. Rodney Johnson, President and editor of dent research. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you.
Rodney Johnson 29:29
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Jason Hartman 30:30
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